Friday, July 20, 2007

A War with Iran would defeat historical precedent.

Washington's latest attempt to rally the American war-machine seems to fall on deaf ears. At least, on my deaf ears.

People who are gun-ho for a war with Iran seem to lack any education concerning war politics and the history of war itself. Whenever a regime falls, would it not be in the best interest of a nearest neighbor with the capacity to influence the new regime proceed to attempt to influence the regime? That is, when Hussein's regime fell, the new order in Iraq became open to outside influence and persuasion. Essentially, America lit the vacancy sign over Iraq, allowing area Turks, Jihadists, Iranians, Kurds, etc. to enter en masse to stake out their own sphere of influence (not to mention internal desires of the Iraqis). Welcome to political economics 101 where the game is to maximize marginal utility.

Administration officials and some legislatures seem intent on positing that Iran is killing American soldiers in Iraq by arming and training insurgents. I am a Patriot, but the rational side of me can see through the appeal to my patriotism. As Stephen Kinzer points out, there are several instance in history where a country indirectly aided an enemy of ours, and in each instance we did not go to war with the aiding country. China gave munitions and training to the North Koreans. The USSR gave munitions to the North Vietnamese. In several instances when America supplied munitions to one side in a conflict, the opossing side did not declare war on us.

The US treads on dangerous waters. A war with Iran would be detrimental to not only our reputation and our military, but to the entire world's health. I hate to be a fear-monger, but don't blink: this administration may lead us right into WW3.

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